Research Library
The charts and tables that carry the argument — drawn from 21squared's research briefings and presentations. Every exhibit is sourced and dated. No hype; just the data that made us build a firm around one asset.
All content on this page is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. Sources and as-of dates are stated per exhibit. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
I — The Macro Case
The case for a hard, non-sovereign asset starts with the arithmetic of the system it hedges.
The debt has never shrunk year-over-year in this window. Every policy path — growth, inflation, or repression — debases the unit it's denominated in.
Interest is the fastest-growing federal budget line. Rates can't rise without breaking the budget; inflation becomes the release valve.
The red line is the benchmark that matters. Anything that can't outrun debasement is a slow guaranteed loss — the question is only which hard asset does it best.
II — The Asset
Four numbers from BlackRock's own research desk, then the two charts that reframe Bitcoin's risk.
The reflex sell-off is liquidity, not verdict. Over the window that matters, the market has repriced Bitcoin upward after every shock since 2020.
Held for a day, Bitcoin is a coin flip. Held for four years or more, a loss has never occurred in the sample. Time horizon is the risk-management tool.
III — The Portfolio Math
Fidelity's ten-year study of a 60/40 portfolio with a Bitcoin sleeve, rebalanced annually — the single most useful table in institutional Bitcoin research.
| BTC alloc. | Ann. return | Ann. volatility | Sharpe | Sortino | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10.26% | 10.26% | 0.72 | 1.32 | −20.64% |
| 1% | 11.25% | 10.65% | 0.85 | 1.76 | −21.02% |
| 3% | 14.56% | 12.04% | 1.09 | 2.02 | −21.79% |
| 5% ★ | 17.55% | 13.80% | 1.20 | 2.34 | −23.21% |
| 7% | 20.30% | 15.65% | 1.12 | 2.62 | −24.60% |
| 10% | 24.09% | ~19% | — | — | −26.72% |
3% of the portfolio lifted returns by +4.3 points per year while the worst drawdown deepened by barely one point. ★ Peak Sharpe (1.20) sat at 5%.
| Institution | Recommended BTC allocation | Methodology | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | 1–2% | Risk-contribution budgeting | Dec 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | 0–4% | Equal-weight model | Q1 2026 |
| Bitwise | 5% | Mean-variance optimization | 2025 |
| Fidelity | 9.4% (max Sharpe) | Kelly criterion + mean-variance | Mar 2026 |
1–3% is mainstream institutional consensus. Below 1% is too small to matter; the mathematical optimum sits far above what most committees can stomach.
IV — The Cycle
Our own analysis — Bitcoin against its two most reliable long-term floors. Not a prediction; a map of where price sits relative to its history.
Closes below the 200-week MA have occurred only at the 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022 cycle lows — every one of them was, in hindsight, an accumulation window.
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V — The Income Layer
Bitcoin digital credit — exchange-listed preferred instruments whose coupons are backed by large Bitcoin treasuries. The asset class our mandate is designed to use as its income base.
| Instrument | Coupon | Issuer & backing | Structure notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| STRC | 12.00% | Strategy Inc. — 843,775 BTC held (~4% of supply), the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. | Perpetual preferred, monthly dividends; variable rate managed toward par; deepest liquidity of any preferred globally. |
| SATA | 13.00% | Strive Inc. — ~20,000 BTC, fully debt-free balance sheet. | Perpetual preferred; ~1.58× asset coverage of senior claims; ~10-year dividend reserve policy. |
Double-digit coupons are the compensation for issuer and structure risk — these are credit instruments, not savings accounts. Position sizing and entry price do the risk management.
Charts don't manage a sleeve — sizing, entries, and the patience to hold do. That's the mandate we're building.
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